The Philadelphia Eagles are suffering through a case of the Super Bowl flu, winning just four of their first nine games outright this season and going 3-6 against the spread. The New Orleans Saints, on the other hand, own an eight-game winning streak, with seven covers in a row.
The Saints are favored by a big number for Sunday afternoon’s bout with the Super Bowl champs at the Superdome.
NFL point spread: The Saints opened as seven-point favorites; the total was 52 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)
NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 36.3-16.8 Saints (NFL picks on every game)
Why the Eagles can cover the spread
Philadelphia is hoping to rebound from a 27-20 loss at home to Dallas last week. The Eagles were trailing the Cowboys 13-3 in the second quarter before tying the score at 13-13 in the third. Philadelphia went down 27-20 with three minutes to go before driving to the Dallas 32-yard line in the final seconds. They completed a pass inside the 10-yard line, only to have time run out.
On the night Philadelphia produced 421 yards of total offense. It just needed about nine more to force overtime. The Eagles’ five losses this season have come by a total of 22 points, none by more than seven points. At 4-5 overall Philadelphia trails Minnesota by a game-and-a-half in the battle for the second NFC Wild Card spot.
Why the Saints can cover the spread
The Saints are the hottest team in the league, winning eight in a row, including a 51-14 blowout of the Bengals in Cincinnati last week. New Orleans scored touchdowns on its first five possessions of the game, led 35-7 at the half and pushed that to 51-7 in the fourth quarter as they strolled to the pay window as a six-point favorite.
On the afternoon the Saints made 33 first downs to just 13 for the Bengals, out-gained Cincinnati 509-284, won the ground game 244-110, dominated time of possession by a 40/20 split and won the turnover battle 2-0.
New Orleans has now out-rushed each of its last seven opponents. As mentioned above, it’s 7-0 ATS over that span. At 8-1 overall the Saints trail the Rams by a half-game in the battle for the best record in the NFC. But they also hold the tiebreaker on Los Angeles, thanks to that 45-35 head-to-head victory two weeks ago.
Smart betting pick
Most signs point to New Orleans here, the hot team against the struggling opponent. But the point spreads will eventually catch up to the Saints. Meanwhile, the Eagles are playing close games. New Orleans will probably win this one outright but smart money takes Philly and the points.
NFL betting trends
The total has gone over in six of the Eagles’ last eight games vs. the Saints.
The Eagles are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games on the road vs. the Saints.
The total has gone over in 13 of the Saints’ last 17 games in the late afternoon.
All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagramor head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week’s top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.